Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 19.215023 21.890800 24.767702 28.086396 31.804568 35.837193 40.537317
2025-02-02 15.486174 19.173889 23.438414 28.716291 35.053433 42.397147 51.530343
2025-02-09 13.230365 17.288788 22.207311 28.573329 36.557386 46.198834 58.678731
2025-02-16 11.379045 15.610929 20.960052 28.164826 37.554970 49.310851 65.065604
2025-02-23 10.164948 14.545434 20.286853 28.288244 39.062813 52.968620 72.155373
2025-03-02 9.241467 13.742581 19.839827 28.602922 40.754196 56.868294 79.684115
2025-03-09 8.390436 12.934420 19.281831 28.668669 42.041171 60.221372 86.576521
2025-03-16 7.560644 12.064139 18.542184 28.385317 42.769878 62.788098 92.454314
2025-03-23 6.993458 11.520654 18.211129 28.632699 44.220782 66.378690 99.876563
2025-03-30 6.658352 11.294483 18.317451 29.507253 46.600934 71.368511 109.488590
2025-04-06 6.087807 10.642185 17.718318 29.256045 47.262535 73.862635 115.549213
2025-04-13 5.325863 9.609018 16.442460 27.855457 46.066846 73.512500 117.330491
2025-04-20 5.068937 9.403103 16.480429 28.551243 48.187150 78.295721 127.141367
2025-04-27 4.836961 9.219358 16.538989 29.279316 50.393448 83.311355 137.540994
2025-05-04 4.461900 8.748062 16.076929 29.104206 51.111529 86.012392 144.419321
2025-05-11 4.084375 8.237148 15.505912 28.698585 51.411347 88.041251 150.294657
2025-05-18 3.828386 7.926527 15.257059 28.820838 52.583357 91.501861 158.585236
2025-05-25 3.624599 7.695834 15.130678 29.142009 54.097614 95.569876 168.012119
2025-06-01 3.400959 7.406222 14.874250 29.208508 55.163168 98.924316 176.378510
2025-06-08 3.148575 7.036486 14.440987 28.920430 55.578583 101.186841 182.987745
2025-06-15 2.986227 6.834579 14.307633 29.172005 56.957542 105.129128 192.571716
2025-06-22 2.911962 6.808951 14.509582 30.061516 59.528408 111.220706 206.059431
2025-06-29 2.710708 6.495950 14.126360 29.806015 59.975126 113.610704 213.207039